Preface and Acknowledgements Part 1: "Seeing" The Economy: Creating Order Out of Chaos Chapter 1 Seeing Around Economic Corners Chapter 2 Making Sense of the Economy Chapter 3 Getting Out of Harm's Way: Redefining Economic Downturns Chapter 4 The "ROCET" Method: Antidote for the Recession Obsession Chapter 5 Smart Economic Tracking: Getting the Noise Out Chapter 6 The Nature of Leading Indicators Part 2: Consumer Spending: Cornerstone of the Economy and Stock Market Chapter 7 Consumer Spending: Powering the Demand Chain in the Economy Chapter 8 Consumer Spending and the Stock Market Part 3: Forecasting Consumer Spending Chapter 9 Predicting the Consumer: Do It on the Numbers; Lose the Psychology Chapter 10 Real Earnings: Powerhouse of the Economy Chapter 11 Employment and Unemployment: The Economy's Deceptive Laggard Chapter 12 Interest rates, The Fed's Mystique, and The Core Role of Inflation Chapter 13 Interest Rates and the Stock Market: A Concerned Look Forward Chapter 14 Federal Deficits and Interest Rates: There Is a Link Part 4: From Theory to Practice Chapter 15 "Drilling Down:" Forecasting For Your Own Industry or Company Chapter 16 Conclusion: Making Economics Happen Appendix 1 Credit: Consumer Spending's "Swing Factor" Appendix 2 Charting Economic Cause and Effect: Does it Work Outside the U.S.? Appendix 3 Major Industry Data Series Appendix 4 www.AheadoftheCurvetheBook.com Appendix 4 URLs for Charts in this Book
Joseph H. Ellis was a partner of Goldman Sachs and was ranked for eighteen consecutive years by Institutional Investor magazine as Wall Street's #1 retail-industry analyst.
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