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Breakthroughs in Decision Science and Risk Analysis


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Table of Contents

Foreword vii

Preface ix

Contributors xi

1. Introduction: Five Breakthroughs in Decision and Risk Analysis 1
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.

2. The Ways We Decide: Reconciling Hearts and Minds 19
Edward C. Rosenthal

3. Simulation Optimization: Improving Decisions under Uncertainty 59
Marco Better, Fred Glover, and Gary Kochenberger

4. Optimal Learning in Business Decisions 83
Ilya O. Ryzhov

5. Using Preference Orderings to Make Quantitative Trade-Offs 123
Chen Wang and Vicki M. Bier

6. Causal Analysis and Modeling for Decision and Risk Analysis 149
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.

7. Making Decisions without Trustworthy Risk Models 189
Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr.

8. Medical Decision-Making: An Application to Sugar-Sweetened Beverages 235
Andrea C. Hupman and Ali E. Abbas

9. Electric Power Vulnerability Models: From Protection to Resilience 259
Sinan Tas and Vicki M. Bier

10. Outthinking the Terrorists 287
Jason Merrick, Philip Leclerc, Hristo Trenkov, and Robert Olsen

Index 313

About the Author

Louis Anthony (Tony) Cox, Jr. PhD, is Chief SciencesOfficer of NextHealth Technologies, a Denver-based health careadvanced analytics software company and President of CoxAssociates, Inc., a Denver-based applied research companyspecializing in quantitative health risk assessment, risk analysis,causal modeling, and operations research. Dr. Cox is alsoClinical Professor of Biostatistics and Informatics at theUniversity of Colorado at Denver, a member of the National Academyof Engineering, and Editor-in-Chief of Risk Analysis: AnInternational Journal.


"Dr. Louis Anthony Cox and 14 contributors have written a valuable text that describes the current state and recent advances in decision and risk analysis. Besides addressing breakthroughs in the psychology and brain science of risky decisions, it also includes methods for deciding what actions to take when information is sparse and useful probabilities cannot be determined." (Ben Rothke, May 2016)

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