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The Butterfly Defect
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Table of Contents

List of Boxes, Illustrations, and Tables ix Preface xiii Acknowledgments xvii Introduction 1 1 Globalization and Risk in the Twenty-First Century 9 Globalization and Integration 10 Global Connectivity and Complex Systems 13 Globalization and the Changing Nature of Risk 23 Globalization: A Double-Edged Sword 30 The Way Forward 33 2 The Financial Sector 36 with Co-Pierre Georg and Tiffany Vogel The Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 37 Financial Globalization in the Twenty-First Century 39 Complexity and Systemic Risk 54 Global Financial Governance 60 Lessons for the Financial Sector 64 3 Supply Chain Risks 70 Global Supply Chains 72 Supply Chain Risk 79 From Management of Risk to Risk Management 90 Lessons for Supply Chain Management 95 4 Infrastructure Risks 100 Transportation 101 Energy 105 The Internet 112 Lessons for Global Infrastructure 120 5 Ecological Risks 123 The Nature of Environmental Risk 124 Risks from the Environment 129 Risks to the Environment 133 Can Globalization Be Good for the Environment? 138 The Export of Pollution 139 Lessons for Managing Environmental Risk 141 6 Pandemics and Health Risks 144 Pandemic Risk 145 Globalization and Health Risks 147 Case Studies 150 Noninfectious Diseases 159 Global Cooperation and Disease Control 160 Lessons from Pandemic Management 164 7 Inequality and Social Risks 168 Global Integration and Inequality 169 The Channels of Inequality 180 The Risks of Inequality 181 Lessons for Challenging Global Inequalities 195 8 Managing Systemic Risk 198 Moving Forward, Not Backward 200 Confronting a New Challenge? 202 The Need to Reform Global Governance 206 Why Reform Has Been So Sluggish 209 Lessons for Global Policy Reform 212 Managing Systemic Risk 219 Notes 221 References 257 Index 285

About the Author

Ian Goldin is director of the Oxford Martin School and professor of globalization and development at the University of Oxford. Mike Mariathasan is assistant professor of finance at KU Leuven.

Reviews

Finalist for the 2015 Estoril Global Issues Distinguished Book Prize "[The authors demonstrate] that the increasing interconnectedness of the world makes the world's economics, infrastructure, health and social conditions behave [as] an interconnected meteorological system. The next big crisis will be of unexpected origin."--Professor Rober J. Shiller, Wall Street Journal "This is an important and thought-provoking book."--Shawn Donnan, Financial Times "This book covers many different sectors and points out that globalization brings opportunities as well as threats; readers from diverse professional and academic backgrounds will gain insights."--Library Journal "The arguments put forward are cohesive and coherent with well-constructed logical chapters, good, well thought out examples and jargon free language... Upon reflection of this book, I was left with a clear and defined picture of how systemic risk effects systems and how globalization inherently increases these risks."--Jason Paul Stansbie, Leonardo Reviews "Although the authors' prose is clear and unburdened by jargon, the nature of the topic means this is not a light read. But it will reward the persistent. The issues they raise, and the interconnections they identify, are such that specialists will come away with a deeper understanding of the risks involved in each of the specific fields they cover... To paraphrase John F. Kennedy, this book should be widely read not because it is easy, but because it is hard."--Survival Global Politics and Strategy "In this context of uncertainty about the future of globalization, the book is a very timely intervention, as it focuses exactly on the risks created by the process of globalization itself. The authors have formidable expertise."--Dariusz Wojcik, Journal of Economic Geography "A timely addition to the nascent literature on CT-inspired methods and models... Bound to trigger debate and invite (if not beckon) its readers to pursue further the ideas discussed on its pages."--Emilian Kavalski, Political Studies Review

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