Table of Contents

Summary.- 1. Introduction.- 1.1 For whom is this report intended?.- 1.2 Aims of the research.- 1.3 Delimiting the field: diabetes mellitus, CNSLD and rheumatoid arthritis.- 1.4 CNSLD.- 1.5 Approach adopted.- 2. Current situation and background.- 2.1 Introduction and explanation of concepts use.- 2.2 Current scale of the problem.- 2.3 Comparisons with other countries.- 2.4 Past trends and background to these trends.- 2.5 Future developments.- 3. Delphi-study of future expectations: results of an opinion survey among 30 experts.- 3.1 Brief summary of method used.- 3.2 Results of Delphi-study.- 4. Future health scenarios: possible situations in 2005.- 4.1 Introduction.- 4.2 Demographic scenario (I).- 4.3 Reference scenario (II).- 4.4 Alternative scenarios (III).- 4.5 Policy scenarios (IV).- 4.6 Conclusions.- 5. Conclusions: priority areas for government policy.- 5.1 Introduction.- 5.2 Determination of priorities.- 5.3 The formulation of a coherent policy.- 5.4 Improving the provision of information.- 5.5 The importance of scientific research.- 5.6 Conclusion.- 6. References.- Appendices.- 1. Diagnosis and treatment of CNSLD.- 2. Economic aspects of CNSLD.- Annexes:.- 1. Diagnostic criteria for classifying CNSLD by levels of clinical severity.- 2. I.C.D. codes Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease and allied conditions (codes 490–496).- 3. The number of patients with asthma, chronic bronchitis (including emphysema) and CNSLD in 2005 compared with 1990 according to the static model.- 4. Description of three “typical” Dutch CNSLD patients on whom questions were asked in the Delphi questionnaire.- 5. Acknowledgements and composition of Delphi panel.- List of abbreviations.

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