Table of Contents

Foreword ix

Preface xi

Acknowledgments xv

Part I Getting Started in Consumer Discretionary 1

Chapter 1 Consumer Discretionary Basics 3

Consumer Discretionary 101 4

Getting to Know the Consumer Discretionary Sector 13

Chapter 2 The History of the Consumer Discretionary Sector 19

The Earliest American Consumers 20

The Birth of the Modern Consumer Discretionary Sector 23

Chapter 3 Consumer Discretionary Sector Drivers 35

Economic Drivers 36

Political Drivers 49

Sentiment Drivers 54

Part II Next Steps: Consumer Discretionary Details 57

Chapter 4 Consumer Discretionary Sector Landscape 59

Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) 60

Global Consumer Discretionary Benchmarks 61

Automobiles & Components Industry Group 66

Retailing Industry Group 72

Media Industry Group 76

Consumer Durables & Apparel Industry Group 81

Consumer Services Industry Group 86

Chapter 5 Challenges in the Consumer Discretionary Sector 91

Challenge 1: Growing Profits in Mature Markets 91

Challenge 2: Managing Volatile Demand 101

Case Study: Callaway Golf 106

Chapter 6 Household Debt—Myths and Opportunities 111

Household Debt in Developed Markets—Basically a Very Useful Tool 112

Tremendous Opportunities in Emerging Markets 117

Case Study: Brazil’s Credit-Driven Consumption Boom 118

Part III Thinking Like a Portfolio Manager 127

Chapter 7 The Top-Down Method 129

Investing Is a Science 130

Einstein’s Brain and the Stock Market 131

The Top-Down Method 132

Top Down Deconstructed 138

Managing Against a Consumer Discretionary Benchmark 145

Chapter 8 Security Analysis 151

Make Your Selection 152

A Five-Step Process 153

Important Questions to Ask 161

Chapter 9 Consumer Discretionary Investment Strategies 167

Strategy 1: Adding Value at the Industry and Sub-Industry Level 168

Strategy 2: Adding Value at the Security Level 174

Strategy 3: Adding Value in a Consumer Discretionary Sector Downturn 174

How to Implement Your Strategy 176

Notes 179

About the Authors 183

Index 185

About the Author

Erik Renaud is a Consumer Discretionary Research Analyst at Fisher Investments. Renaud graduated from Santa Clara University with a bachelor's degree in finance. Hailing from Minnetonka, Minnesota, he currently resides in San Francisco, California. Andrew S. Teufel has been with Fisher Investments since 1995, where he currently serves as a Co-President and the Director of Research. Prior to joining Fisher Investments, he worked at Bear Stearns as a corporate finance analyst in its Global Technology Group. Teufel also instructs at many seminars and educational workshops throughout the United States and United Kingdom, and has lectured at the Haas School of Business at UC Berkeley. He is also the Editor in Chief of MarketMinder.com. Teufel is a graduate of UC Berkeley.