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Fly Fishing the Stock Market
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Table of Contents

Introduction xiii Part I Fly-Fishing Lessons Chapter 1 Three P 's in a Pod 3 Passion 4 Patience 4 Persistence 4 Chapter 2 The Tackle Box 7 What Goes into the Toolbox 8 Bar Charts and Candlesticks-Same Markets, Different Angles 9 Bullish and Bearish Engulfing Patterns 13 Trendlines 14 Tops 14 Bottoms 19 False Breakouts 20 Gaps 22 Triangles 26 Volume 26 Computerized Indicators 28 Moving Averages 30 Moving Average Convergence-Divergence 32 The Impulse System 39 Force Index 41 Conclusion 41 Chapter 3 Developing Your Technique 45 Analytical Tools and Steps 46 Understanding Entry Orders 49 Conclusion 51 Chapter 4 Expectations 53 Why Managed Funds Can Be "Dilutional" 54 Conclusion 58 Part II Expect the Unexpected Chapter 5 Seeing is Not Believing 63 Getting Trapped at the Extreme Edge 64 Conclusion 66 Chapter 6 The Art of Deception 69 When the Prey is Exhausted 70 The Deceptions of V-Bottoms 71 The Deceptions of Symmetrical Triangles 73 The Deceptions of Ascending Triangles 74 The Deceptions of Head-and-Shoulders 77 The Deceptions of Breakouts 78 Conclusion 80 Part III Time to Go FISHing Chapter 7 Fishing Seasons/Market Seasons 83 Market Seasons 83 The Influence of Volatility 85 Monitoring Market Season Changes 86 The Weathervane: A Market Timing Monitor 86 The Weather Station 94 Adding the Detail of Price Patterns to Strengthen the Message 96 Conclusion 99 Chapter 8 Matching the Hatch 101 Bottom Patterns 103 Pull-Back Patterns 115 Top Patterns 123 Pull-Up Patterns 130 The Symmetrical Triangle: An All-Around General-Purpose Pattern 136 Conclusion 150 Chapter 9 Terrestrials and Cut Banks 153 Fundamental Analysis 154 Using Fundamentals to Complement Technical Analysis 159 A Disconnect Between Technicals and Fundamentals 164 Fundamentals on Fire: Momentum Trading 165 Chasing the Big Ones 168 Conclusion 168 Chapter 10 Catch and Release 171 Setting the Hook with the Strike Indicator (Entry) 172 The Strike Indicator Entry Steps 174 Snag Management (Stop-Loss) 177 The Drag System (Trade Management/Profit Exit) 178 Examples of Drag Settings 181 Exit to Enter? 184 Conclusion 187 Chapter 11 A Word About Bait Fishing 189 Daily Bait-'n'-Wait 191 Weekly Bait-'n'-Wait 191 Monthly Bait-'n'-Wait 192 Conclusion 193 Part IV Fishing Journal Chapter 12 The Trophy Room 197 Neckline Break . . . Up: 9/28/09 198 The January Effect: 1/5/10 199 A Gem in the Junk Pile: 1/1/10 202 Greater Fool Trade: 4/17/10 204 The Perfect Storm: 2/5/10 207 Time of Possession: 8/14/10 210 W-Bottom: 9/11/10 213 Logical Entry and Exit-Long ENTR: 9/11/10 216 Conclusion 219 Chapter 13 The One That Got Away 221 GLF Trade 222 JTX Trade 225 RMBS Trade 227 Conclusion 229 Chapter 14 The Structure of Success 231 The Building Blocks Concept 232 Conclusion 246 Conclusion 249 Appendix A My Trading Journal 251 Value versus Momentum 252 Analysis 252 Group Strength 253 Trading and Position Sizing in Volatile Markets 253 Trade Management 254 Breakouts 256 Taking Profits 256 The Entry/Exit Review 256 Trading Systems 257 Trading Strategies 257 Learning and Progressing 257 Appendix B Table of Indicator Sets 259 References 261 About the Author 263 About the Website 265 Index 267

About the Author

STEPHEN MORRIS is one of the top performing traders of Alexander Elder's SpikeTrade Group, generating a gain of 264# in his SpikeTrade equity during the turbulent and confusing markets of 2008--2010. He has been a guest instructor at an Elder-sponsored trading camp and operates a blog, Fly Fishing the Stock Market, which contains his Weathervane (Market Timing Monitor), weekly and daily market forecasts, along with commentary on long- and short-term buy signals and specific market patterns. Dr. Morris has been trading since 1998.

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