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Intelligence Analysis


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Table of Contents

Chapter 1: Introduction Why Intelligence Fails What the Book Is About Summary Notes Chapter 2: Intelligence in Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict Nature of Twenty-First-Century Century Conflict Tools of Conflict The Conflict Spectrum The Function of Intelligence Summary Notes Part I: The Analysis Process Chapter 3: The Intelligence Process The Traditional Intelligence Cycle Intelligence as a Target-Centric Process The Target Summary Notes Chapter 4: Defining the Intelligence Issue Statement of the Issue The Issue Definition Product Issue Decomposition Complex Issue Decomposition Structured Analytic Methodologies for Issue Definition Example: Defining the Counterintelligence Issue Summary Notes Chapter 5: Conceptual Frameworks for Intelligence Analysis Analytic Perspectives - PMESII Modeling the Intelligence Target Modeling Using PMESII Using Models in Analysis Summary Notes Chapter 6: Overview of Models in Intelligence Creating a Conceptual Model Textual Models Mathematical Models Visual Models Advanced Target Models Target Model Combinations Alternative and Competitive Target Models Summary Notes Chapter 7: Creating the Model Existing Intelligence Sources of New Raw Intelligence Evaluating Evidence Combining Evidence Structured Augmentation A Note About the Role of Information Technology Summary Notes Chapter 8: Denial, Deception, and Signaling Denial Deception Defense against D&D: Protecting Intelligence Sources and Methods Higher Level Denial and Deception Countering Denial and Deception Signaling Analytic Tradecraft in a World of Denial and Deception Summary Notes Chapter 9: Systems Modeling and Analysis Analyzing an Existing System: The Mujahedeen Insurgency Analyzing a Developmental System: Methodology Performance Schedule Risk Cost Operations Research Summary Notes Chapter 10: Network Modeling and Analysis Link Models Network Models Some Network Types Modeling the Network Analyzing the Network Summary Notes Chapter 11: Geospatial and Temporal Modeling and Analysis Static Geospatial Models Temporal Models Dynamic Geospatial Models Summary Notes Part II: The Estimative Process Chapter 12: Predictive Analysis Introduction to Predictive Analysis Convergent and Divergent Phenomena The Estimative Approach Summary Notes Chapter 13: Estimative Forces Inertia Countervailing Forces Contamination Synergy Feedback Unintended Consequences Summary Notes Chapter 14: Scenarios Why Use Scenarios? Types of Scenarios Scenario Perspectives How to Construct Scenarios Indicators and the Role of Intelligence A Scenario Exercise: The Global Information Environment in 2020 Summary Notes Chapter 15: Simulation Modeling Types of Simulations Creating and Running a Simulation Simulations Used in Intelligence Analysis Decision Modeling and Simulation Checking the Decision Model: Red Team Analysis Summary Notes Part III: Systems and Network Views of Analysis Chapter 16: A Systems View: Function Intelligence Research Current Intelligence Indications and Warning What Should an Intelligence Unit Produce? Limits and Boundaries The Pathology of Failures Summary Notes Chapter 17: A Systems View: Process Identify the Customer Planning the Analysis Project Managing Team Efforts Preparing the Analytic Product Reviewing the Analytic Product Evaluating the Analytic Product Summary Notes Chapter 18: A Systems View: Structure Topical or Regional Structure? The Analyst Analytic Teams Summary Notes Chapter 19: A Network View: The Customer Overview of Customers Analyst-Customer Interaction Summary Notes Chapter 20: A Network View: The Collector The U.S. Collection Management Problem Interrelating the Issue and Target Model Identifying Gaps Developing the Collection Strategy Planning for Future Collection: Filling the Long-Term Gaps Executing Collection Strategies Summary Notes

About the Author

Robert M. Clark currently is an independent consultant performing threat analyses for the U.S. Intelligence Community. He also develops and teaches intelligence graduate courses for Johns Hopkins University and the University of Maryland. He previously was a faculty member of the DNI's Intelligence Community Officers' Course and course director of the DNI's Introduction to the Intelligence Community course. Dr. Clark, a USAF lieutenant colonel (retired), served as an electronics warfare officer and intelligence officer. At the CIA, he was a senior analyst and group chief responsible for developing analytic methodologies. He was cofounder and CEO of the Scientific and Technical Analysis Corporation, a privately held company serving the U.S. Intelligence Community. Clark holds an SB from MIT, a PhD in electrical engineering from the University of Illinois, and a JD from George Washington University. Beyond analyzing wicked intelligence issues, his passion is writing on the topic of intelligence. His books include Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach (5th edition, 2016), The Technical Collection of Intelligence (2010), and Intelligence Collection (2014). He is co-author, with Dr. William Mitchell, of Target-Centric Network Modeling (2015); and co-editor, with Dr. Mark Lowenthal, of Intelligence Collection: The Five Disciplines (2015).


"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach offers strong, in-depth coverage of the intelligence process, the evaluation of data, and the analysis of the customer. Clark's work has demonstrated its professional success and acceptance within the academic community and the practicing world of intelligence analysis." -- Ronald Vardy
"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach is a major contributor toward making intelligence analysis a more scientific process. Those involved in behavioral analysis have tended to rely more on intuitive approaches and the historical method for their analyses. With Clark's text, behavioral analysts can learn the utility and procedures for making their analyses more systematic and scientific. It comprehensively covers modeling and other analytic techniques, as well as the intelligence cycle, collection, managing analysis and dealing with intelligence customers." -- Michael Collier
"Intelligence Analysis: A Target-Centric Approach is a top notch text, written by an expert, and aimed at serious intelligence courses. Clark provides a well-rounded book that touches on all relevant collection and analytical disciplines." -- Carl Wege

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