Acknowledgments xi INTRODUCTION You Are Already a Commodity Trader 1 My Most Important Market Belief 4 The Beginning of My Career as a Speculator 5 The Ride of a Lifetime 8 CHAPTER 1 Making Order Out of Short-Term Chaos 9 How I Learned about the Market 9 Charting the Market 11 The Nonrandom Market 13 Understanding Market Structure 15 Market Structure Will Never Change 21 Short-Sell Pattern 27 Target Time and Trailing Stops 28 Recap 32 CHAPTER 2 It?s a Question of Price and Time 33 All You Will Ever Need to Know about Cycles 33 The Natural Cycle of Range Change 39 Where the Trend Is with You?The Second Power-Play Price Pattern 50 Recap 54 CHAPTER 3 The Real Secret to Short-Term Trading 59 It?s All about Time 61 Bankrolling Hotshot Traders 62 Proving the Point 65 How to Make the Most Money 68 Recap 70 CHAPTER 4 Volatility Breakouts?The Momentum Breakthrough 71 Simple Daily Range Breakouts 76 A Look at Volatility in the S&P 500 80 Separating Buyers from Sellers to Find Volatility Using Market Swings 95 Results 96 One Step Further 97 Recap 98 CHAPTER 5 The Theory of Short-Term Trading 99 What Is Wrong about the Information Age 103 E. H. Harriman?s Rule of Making Millions 104 Recap 105 CHAPTER 6 Getting Closer to the Truth 107 The Market Is Not a Coin Flip: Random Walk or Cootner versus Cohen (Cohen Wins) 108 Gold TDOM Study 117 Bond TDOM Study 118 Monthly Road Maps 120 Recap 123 CHAPTER 7 Patterns to Profit 125 The Common Element 126 The Questions to Ask 131 My Smash Day Patterns 132 How to Use Smash Day Patterns 136 Specialists? Trap 137 A Vital Note?This Works on Shorter Time Frames as Well 141 Oops! This Is Not a Mistake 145 S&P Oops! Trading 151 Recap 152 CHAPTER 8 Separating the Buyers from the Sellers 153 Greatest Swing Value 155 Stock Index Trading with Greatest Swing Value 156 Some Pointers 160 Recap 161 CHAPTER 9 Short-Term Trading from a Quote Screen 163 How a Quote-Screen Trader Makes Money 165 Swing Points as Trend Change Indication 166 The Three-Bar High/Low System 167 A New Indicator for Short-Term Traders: Willspread 170 Willspread and the S&P 500 Stock Index 174 Recap 180 CHAPTER 10 Special Short-Term Situations 181 Month-End Trading in Stock Indexes 181 Target Months 184 Making It Better 184 Month-End Trading in the Bond Market 186 Getting Specific 187 Better and Better 188 A Time to Sell 191 Recap 193 CHAPTER 11 When to Get Out of Your Trades 195 CHAPTER 12 Thoughts on the Business of Speculation 197 Exits before Entries 197 What Speculation Is All About 200 It?s about Time 201 Essential Points about Speculation 202 Recap 215 CHAPTER 13 Money Management?The Keys to the Kingdom 217 Most Traders Use a Hit-and-Miss Approach 218 Approaches to Money Management?One Is Right for You 218 The Good, the Bad, and the Ugly of Money Management 219 Looking in New Directions, Drawdown as an Asset 222 Back to Ralph: 2011 Money Management Breakthrough 228 The Kelly Ratio Mirage 229 Recap 233 CHAPTER 14 From Kennedy to Obama, Thoughts from 50 Years of Trading 235 Trading and Collecting Honey 236 Low-Hanging Fruit 237 Look before You Leap 238 Remember the Game Called Pick Up Sticks 238 And It Can Get Worse by Far. . . 239 Lock-Up Time 240 Enough on Greed . . .Now Let?s Deal with Fear 241 Running, Trading, and Losing 242 Doing the Wrong Thing . . . It?s So Easy, Isn?t It? 242 It?s Not the Trade, It?s the Battle 243 The Art of Fly-Fishing Revisited 244 Fear and Greed, Looking Them in the Face Again 245 Why Most Traders Lose Most of the Time 246 A Review of Losing Trades Showed That 247 The Number One Reason We Lose Money Trading 247 The Most Important Trading Belief You Have 248 The Worst Dog I Ever Had Cost Me the Most 249 Athletics Are Such a Parallel to Trading 251 What Causes Stock and Commodity Market Trends 251 How to Measure the Public versus the Pros 253 Folks, It Just Can?t Be Done 254 The Rush of Trading 255 Beating Them to the Punch 257 It?s Just Over My Head 259 I Looked Fear and Greed in the Face 259 The ShowMust Go On 260 Broken Noses, Cauliflower Ears, and Bad Trades 261 Learning How to Lose Money 262 Hillary, High Hopes, and Heartaches 263 Nervous Nellies?Heaven Bound 264 Secrets of System Developing and Trading 265 The Difference between Winners and Losers 266 Recap 268 CHAPTER 15 Just What Does Make the Stock Market Rally? 269 Logic 101 270 These Words Are My Bond 270 A Look at Data A and Data B 270 Let?s Break Some Bad Habits 273 How to Break Bad Habits 273 Comments on Setting Stops?Dollar Loss and Unpredictability 275 An Overview of How I Trade 278 My Trading Strategy . . .How It Works 282 Recap 285 CHAPTER 16 Hard Facts about a Very Hard Game to Win 287 It Is Just Like Life 289 Maybe You Are Not Cut Out for This . . . 292 You Are in a Tough Spot . . . 293 But There?s a Little Bit More. . . 294 In Closing 295 Index 297
Larry R. Williams has been trading for almost fifty years and is one of the most highly regarded short-term traders in the world. Larry has taught thousands to trade, won several trading championships, and since 1970 has been writing bestselling books based on his technical indicator, Williams %R, developed in 1966 and still published daily in major financial newspapers and on finance and investing sites. Between trading, researching, and developing trading tools, he ran twice for the U.S. Senate, was a board member of the National Futures Association, and has received numerous awards, including Futures magazine's first Doctor of Futures Award, the Omega Research Lifetime Achievement Award, and Traders International 2005 Trader of the Year. The Mayor of San Diego declared October 6th, 2002 "Larry Williams' Day." Larry has been featured on CNBC and Fox News, and has been interviewed and quoted in more publications than he can keep track of.