Table of Contents

Preface ix Author's Biographies xi Acknowledgements xiii 1 Projects and Risk 1 1.1 Construction projects 1 1.2 Decision making 2 1.3 Risk management strategy 4 1.4 Project planning 5 1.5 Summary 6 2 The Project Environment 8 2.1 Projects 8 2.2 The project constitution 9 2.3 Project organisation 11 2.4 Project phases 13 2.5 Effect of project phase on risk 16 2.6 Project appraisal 17 2.7 Summary 19 3 Understanding the Human Aspects 21 3.1 Risk management - context 21 3.2 Risk management - organisations 22 3.3 The risk management process 23 3.4 Some guidelines to the risk management process 24 3.5 The risk workshop 26 3.6 Communication 29 3.7 Summary 30 Reference 30 4 Qualitative Methods and Soft Systems Methodology 31 4.1 Qualitative risk assessment 31 4.2 Review of project programmes and budgets 32 4.3 The risk log 33 4.4 Using a risk log to formulate risk management strategy 35 4.5 Qualitative methods 37 4.6 Soft systems methodology 38 4.7 Case study: SSM in use in the procurement of construction projects 40 4.8 Summary 48 5 Risk and Value Management 49 5.1 Introduction 49 5.2 Approaches to the management of risk 50 5.3 The standard risk management model 52 5.4 Applying risk and value management 53 5.5 Value management processes 55 5.6 Understanding the project risk 56 5.7 Applying value and risk management 62 5.8 Iteration of the process 65 5.9 Summary 66 References 66 6 Quantitative Methods for Risk Analysis 67 6.1 Sanction 67 6.2 Project appraisal and selection 69 6.3 Project evaluation 71 6.4 Engineering risks 72 6.5 Risk management 75 6.6 Probabilistic analysis 76 6.7 Response to risks 79 6.8 Successful risk management 80 6.9 Principles of contingency fund estimation 81 Appendix 6.A: Alternative methods of risk analysis 82 7 The Contribution of Information Technology to Risk Modelling and Simulation 87 7.1 Purpose of RMS 88 7.2 When to use RMS 88 7.3 Requirements of the analyst 90 7.4 Modelling and simulation 90 7.5 Modelling using RMS 91 7.6 Data management 92 7.7 Analytical mechanisms 93 7.8 Classification of RMS 94 7.9 Selection of RMS 95 7.10 Modelling a project for risk management 96 7.11 Data requirements for realistic modelling 98 7.12 Choice of variable distribution 100 7.13 Case study 101 7.14 Case study simulations 107 7.15 Analysis of the result 109 7.16 Discussion of findings 115 7.17 Summary 115 8 Risk Allocation in the Contracting and Procurement Cycle 117 8.1 Typical contracting and procurement processes 117 8.2 Value planning case study 121 8.3 Known and unknown risks in contracts 123 8.4 Risk allocation strategies 125 8.5 Risk allocation according to payment mechanism 135 8.6 Contract award 138 8.7 Summary 140 Reference 141 9 Managing Financial Risks in Major Construction and PFI / PPP Projects 142 9.1 Project financing 142 9.2 Types of finance 143 9.3 Appraisal and validity of financing projects 148 9.4 Typical financial risks 151 9.5 Promoter 152 9.6 Financial risk in concession contracts 153 9.7 Global and elemental risks in concession contracts 155 9.8 Summary 160 10 Risks in International Construction Project Joint Ventures 161 10.1 Background 161 10.2 Concept of joint venture 162 10.3 Motives for joint venture formation 162 10.4 Assessing joint venture success 163 10.5 Case study 165 10.6 Summary 169 Acknowledgement 169 References 169 11 Risk Management at Corporate, Strategic Business Unit and Project Levels 171 11.1 Risk in organisations 171 11.2 Risk management 173 11.3 The risk management process 173 11.4 Benefits of risk management 174 11.5 Recognising risks 175 11.6 Why risk management is used 176 11.7 Risk management actions at different levels 177 11.8 Summary 182 References 183 12 Case Studies 184 12.1 Introduction 184 12.2 Heavy lift vessel design and fabrication programme risk assessment 185 12.3 Risk identification 186 12.4 High Speed 1 189 12.5 Brief history of HS1 190 12.6 The risk management process 193 12.7 Risk assessment, analysis and response 198 12.8 Summary of the preliminary schedule risk analysis results 205 13 Risk Management in a Multi-Project Environment 209 13.1 Introduction 209 13.2 Drivers for the multi-project approach to project delivery 209 13.3 A conceptual model of the multi-project environment 211 13.4 Risks that are unique to or amplified in multi-project environments 213 13.5 The change in mindset required to manage risk in multi-project environments 214 13.6 Summary 217 References 217 Further reading 217 14 Key Issues and Guidance in Practical Risk Management 218 14.1 Decision making 218 14.2 Preparation for risk management 219 14.3 Risk management process 220 14.4 Models 224 14.5 Uncertainty 226 14.6 Socio-technical approach to risk 226 14.7 Summary 228 References 229 Index 231

About the Author

Nigel J. Smith is Professor of Project & Transport Infrastructure Management at the School of Civil Engineering, University of Leeds Tony Merna is Senior Partner of Oriel Group Practice and a lecturer for Manchester Business School Worldwide. Paul Jobling is a managing consultant with Kingsfield Consulting