About the author Acknowledgments and thanks Introduction 1. The Properties Of Cycles Introduction Basic Quantities Visualising Period and Amplitude How Cycles Combine Properties of Market Cycles Conclusion 2. Basic Tools I: Valid Trendlines Trend and Trendlines The Concept of Trendlines Trend Direction Trend Strength The Real Nature of Trend The Valid Trendline (VTL) The Key Role Played by VTLs Conclusion 3. Basic Tools II: Displaced Cycles - The FLD Introduction Properties of the FLD Plotting the FLD Applying FLDs FLD Combinations Conclusion 4. Isolating Market Cycles I Introduction Cycle Envelopes Phasing Analysis Set Up Conducting a Phasing Analysis Conclusion 5. Isolating Cycles II Introduction Spectral Analysis Phasing Analysis - Daily Chart Conclusion 6. Selection, Set Up And Entry Introduction Creating a Shortlist Scanning Charts Entering the Trade Short Selling Conclusion 7. Managing Open Positions Introduction Case Study - JP Morgan Chase 2002/2003 Conclusion 8. RSI And Elliott Wave Introduction RSI and Elliott Wave - The Basics Case Study I: Gold, November 2008 Case Study II: Euro/USD, January 2010 Conclusion Conclusion Appendices Appendix 1: Elliott Wave Patterns Appendix 2: FLD Code Appendix 3: Inverse Moving Average Code Appendix 4: Cycle Envelope Code Appendix 5: Diamonds Grid and Numbers Appendix 6: Final Diamond Placement Code Appendix 7: Discrete Fourier Transform Code Appendix 8: Volatility Index code Recommended further reading The Sentient Trader Index
Christopher Grafton is currently Director, Principal Analyst and
Systems Developer at Vectisma Ltd., an independent market analysis
firm focusing on Japanese equities with a global macro overlay,
based in England. Previously, he has held positions on the sell
side at several investment banks in London and Tokyo and also
worked as an analyst and trader for a London-based hedge fund
specialising in Japanese equities.
Christopher speaks fluent Japanese, is a member of the Market
Technicians Association, is a successful systems designer,
programmer and trader, and holds the Chartered Market Technician
designation.
A carefully constructed, thorough and extremely readable guide to a
complicated area of technical analysis. It is well presented and
illustrated throughout with 120 legible diagrams and financial
charts, showing real examples from the markets that make Hurst's
work accessible.
*Money Maker magazine*
This book is highly-recommended for any market analyst or trader
who wishes to add cycles to their analytical toolbox. This is a
clear and concise introduction.
*Bill Sarubbi, Fund Manager, Cycles Research Investments LLC,
Vienna*
Cycles are one of the most underutilised, and yet most rewarding,
sources of information available to an analyst or investor. If it
is possible to anticipate a reversal, and track it in real time,
then eager investors should want to know about it. Until relatively
recently, cycles have not been properly understood, so there has
been a dearth of practical knowledge. This gap is now being filled
by dedicated researchers such as Chris Grafton. His book brings
together the ideas of one of the pioneers of cycle analysis - the
engineer, J.M. Hurst - and presents them in an easily
understandable and very useable form. Once mastered, the techniques
explored in the book should be a source of significantly enhanced
market understanding and very profitable investment.
*Tony Plummer, Author, Forecasting Financial Markets, Director,
Helmsman Economics Ltd*
I really like this book. It takes the excellent original idea of
Hurst and brings it right up-to-date in the modern computer era. It
explains cycles and harmonics and shows how to construct Valid
Trend Lines and Lines of Future Demarcation. It does not pretend
that this subject is easy, but does explain it with very clear
charts and writing. The work shows the relationship to Elliott
waves and RSI oscillations. There are some clear worked examples
and ideas of how to put on and manage a trade. Most investors will
find it a useful addition to their knowledge. Well done Chris
Grafton.
*Robin Griffiths, Cazenove Capital Management*
Through clear, straightforward explanations of the tools and
up-to-date market illustrations, Grafton makes Hurst cycle analysis
accessible to today's trader. Readers gain not only a thorough
understanding of cycles but also the skills to begin implementing
cyclic analysis immediately.
*Julie Dahlquist, Ph.D., CMT, Editor of the Journal of Technical
Analysis and coauthor of Technical Analysis: The Complete Resource
for Financial Market Technicians*
JM Hurst's Cyclic Principles are perhaps the most powerful yet
misunderstood concepts about the workings of financial markets in
the history of financial trading. Published in the 1970s, Hurst's
work has survived into the 21st century because it is so powerful
and effective, but the application of his principles and the
practice of his trading methodology have been shrouded in a cloak
of arcane mystery. Christopher Grafton has done a great service to
the 21st century trader by thoroughly presenting Hurst's work in a
format that replaces the pencil, eraser and chart pad with a
computer. Armed with the tools that Grafton includes in the book
(and an understanding of how to apply them) the reader will be well
placed to start honing their analytical skills and putting this
powerful theory to profitable use.
*David Hickson, creator of Sentient Trader Hurst Trading System
(www.sentienttrader.com)*
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