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New Product Forecasting


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Table of Contents

Foreword, Martin Joseph and Alec Finney; Preface; PART I. FOUNDATIONS OF APPLIED NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING; 1. Introduction to Applied New Product Forecasting; Clarifying the Terminology of Product, Service, and/or Offering; * A New Product Forecasting Directive; * Beginning the New Product Forecasting Endeavor; * Types of New Product Estimates; * New Product Planning Versus New Product Forecasting; * Types of New Products; * New Product Forecasting Techniques; * New Product Forecasting Strategy: Linking Techniques to Type of New Product; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 2. New Product Development and New Product Forecasting: Process and Structure; The New Product Development Process; * Using Teams to Structure New Product Development; * The New Product Forecasting Process; * Assumptions Management; * S&OP and New Product Forecasting; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; PART II. NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING TECHNIQUES; 3. Judgmental New Product Forecasting Techniques; Jury of Executive Opinion; * Sales Force Composite; * Scenario Analysis; * Delphi Method; * Assumptions-Based Modeling; * Using Assumptions-Based Models to Identify Critical Assumptions and Examine Risk; * Decision Trees; * Markov Process Model; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 4. Customer/Market Research Techniques for New Product Forecasting; Concept Testing; * Product Use Testing; * Market Testing; * Conjoint Analysis; * Quality Function Deployment; * The Kano Model; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 5. Time Series Techniques for New Product Forecasting; Look-Like Analysis (Analogous Forecasting); * Diffusion Modeling; * Composite Curve Approach; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 6. Regression Analysis for New Product Forecasting; Correlation; * Regression Analyses; * Final Comments on Regression Analyses; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; PART III. MANAGERIAL CONSIDERATIONS FOR APPLIED NEW PRODUCT FORECASTING; 7. Special Topics in New Product Forecasting; Understanding the Launch Phenomenon; * The Launch Cycle; * Pre-Launch Preparation: Launch Control Protocol; * Launch Tracking and the Launch Scorecard; * Special New Product Forecasting Issues; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; 8. New Product Forecasting Benchmarks; Review of Literature on New Product Forecasting Practices; * New Product Forecasting Benchmarks; * Final Observations; * Implications for Your Company's New Product Forecasting Process; * Key Concepts; * Discussion Questions; References; * About the Author; * Index.


"This is an excellent presentation of forecasting, specifically as it applies to new product development. Ken Kahn clearly explains the linkage between forecasting techniques and the overall NPD process - a unique and important contribution. The conceptual overview in chapter 2 is a real standout, and the treatment of the individual forecasting techniques is clear and jargon-free. Great job!" - Anthony Di Benedetto, Temple University; Editor, Journal of Product Innovation Management "Ken Kahn's clear explanations of forecasting techniques can be easily understood and implemented by beginners. He also gives experienced managers the rationale for using one forecasting tool over another. The wisdom in New Product Forecasting crosses industries and geographic boundaries." - Mark Covas, Director of Forecasting Excellence, The Gillette Company"

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