1. Introduction; 2. A theory of quagmire; 3. The Lebanese civil war, 1975-1990: issues, actors, turning points, explanations; 4. Mechanisms of quagmire in Lebanon; 5. Civil wars worldwide, 1944-2006; 6. Comparative evidence from Chad and Yemen; 7. A field guide to quagmire.
Rebuts the pervasive 'folk' notion that quagmire is intrinsic to a country or civil war. Shows that quagmire is made, not found.
Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl is Assistant Professor of Political Science at Universiteit Leiden. He has held fellowships at Harvard's John F. Kennedy School of Government and the Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, New Jersey. Schulhofer-Wohl's research has been supported by the Social Science Research Council, the National Science Foundation, the Orient-Institut Beirut, and the Harry Frank Guggenheim Foundation.
'This brilliant and erudite book, the outcome of assiduous and
painstaking research, pulls together the premises underlying the
heuristic metaphor of Quagmire. It is a master stroke. Destined, in
my view, to become a landmark, a tour de force, even a classic for
the analysis of civil wars in their diverse origins and
manifestations. Like other classics, Professor Schulhofer-Wohl
offers an enlightened theoretical paradigm, grounded empirical
fieldwork, sustained by compelling prose. Equally appealing, he
adopts a multilayered approach that draws on both internationally
and domestically-centered perspectives to analyze the strategic
interactions between foreign states and internal warring parties.
In short, to understand how belligerents become entrapped in civil
wars.' Samir Khalaf, Emeritus Professor of Sociology, American
University of Beirut
'It is sometimes said that powers 'find' themselves bogged down in
quagmires. In this lucidly written work, Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl
argues that 'quagmires are made, not found.' Schulhofer-Wohl shows
just how foreign backers and belligerents make quagmires through
the interaction of their strategic choices. Quagmire in Civil War
is not only a significant contribution to our understanding of why
some civil wars become prolonged, but also an important work adding
to our comprehension of the preferences and interlocking strategic
choices of external and domestic actors in civil war in general.'
Roger Petersen, Arthur and Ruth Sloan Professor of Political
Science, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
'Professor Schulhofer-Wohl penetrates deeply into the question of
why some - but not all - civil wars entrap governments, rebels, and
foreign backers. Quagmire's analysis sheds light on Syria's civil
war after 2011. It explains why both pro-government and rebel
forces often fell back to non-territorial warfare between 2014 and
2016 and why the balance shifted in favor of Asad when Russia
especially escalated to back the Syrian government's move for
costly territorial control and rebel backers declined to match the
escalation. Aspiring policymakers need to go beyond simplistic
descriptions of the evolution of civil wars to consider
Schulhofer-Wohl's analysis about how decisions by different actors
can together produce outcomes not originally foreseen or intended
by any side in a civil war.' Robert S. Ford, US Ambassador to
Syria, 2011-2014
'In this magisterial book, Schulhofer-Wohl takes on a big question:
Why do some civil wars become 'quagmires' while others do not? His
innovative answer points to the strategic structure of a conflict
and associated decision-making problems for the warring parties and
their potential foreign backers. Moving research on civil wars in
new directions, he brings conceptual rigor to the notion of a civil
war quagmire and highlights key mechanisms leading to their
emergence. His rigorous empirical approach, which combines
hypotheses derived from a formal model, original fieldwork in
Lebanon, cross-national statistical tests, and comparative
historical research on Chad and Yemen, inspires confidence in his
arguments.' Melani Cammett, Clarence Dillon Professor of
International Affairs, Harvard University
'While many scholars have viewed the Lebanese Civil War as a key
case study in comparative research on armed conflict, it was never
quite written. Jonah Schulhofer-Wohl has finally done that job, and
no one could have done it better. Quagmire in Civil War at once
provides theoretical sophistication, in-depth empirical analysis,
and policy relevance. It is one of the best studies on Lebanon and
the Middle East I have seen in a very long time; a strong rebuke to
anyone still claiming that Middle East studies fails to contribute
to political science and the comparative study of war and peace.'
Reinoud Leenders, Reader at the Department of War Studies, King's
College London, and author of Spoils of Truce: Corruption and
State-Building in Postwar Lebanon
'How do warring parties get trapped in interminable civil wars,
unable either to win or withdraw? In this important new book, Jonah
Schulhofer-Wohl explains why quagmire is the tragic consequence of
particular strategic interactions between contending factions and
their foreign backers, and not the result of domestic constraints,
strategic myopia, or other decision-making pathologies.
Theoretically rigorous and empirically rich, Quagmire in Civil War
is an exemplary work of policy-relevant social science.' Stephen M.
Walt, Robert and Renee Belfer Professor of International Affairs,
John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University
'Quagmire in Civil War offers not only a fascinating read on a
highly relevant topic, but provides a model for how statistics,
game theory, history, and political science can present a
challenging topic.' Jerry Lenaburg, New York Journal of Books
'Quagmire in Civil War is a masterpiece of conflict studies,
combining a variety of research methods to explain a confusing
phenomenon which tends to compound war's dangers and bog down
superpowers in foreign theaters.' Giuseppe Spatafora, Journal of
Peace Research
'This is an excellent and important academic book that will
interest Middle East scholars, political scientists, and political
economists.' Laia Balcells, The Middle East Journal
'... the book provides a rigorous understanding of the mechanisms
of foreign-domestic entanglement in civil wars. The quantitative
comparative analysis of 140 civil wars that follows the in-depth
study of the Lebanese case convincingly points to the wide
applicability of the theory. From this perspective, the book is a
vital reference for scholars of civil wars and internationalisation
of local conflicts, setting the stage for a new research agenda for
the study of quagmire, its causes, duration, effects and
implications for local belligerents, foreign powers and most
crucially the civilian populations that are always at the receiving
end of the nightmares of quagmires.' Marina Calculli, The
International Spectator
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