Introduction. Simulation Practice, Uncertainty and Policy Advice: The Practice of Scientific Simulation. A Typology of Uncertainty in Scientific Simulation. Assessment of Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice. The Case of Simulating Climate Change: The Practice of Climate Simulation. Uncertainties in Climate Simulation. Assessments of Climate-Simulation Uncertainty for Policy Advice. Conclusions.
Arthur C. Petersen
"This book can be considered a conceptual book for high-level
graduate students as well as scholars from climatology-related
fields who wish to understand the philosophy underlying
computer-based simulation of climate."
—Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A,
2015"Simulating Nature is deeply rooted in applied statistics with
a welcome openness to a few concepts such as risk, values, and
uncertainties. This not-so-frequent-nowadays philosophical
dimension in statistics is perhaps the strength of this book and
that is why it would be important for graduate students who are
already familiar with simulation and applied statistics. On the
other hand, philosophers, experts in ethics, policymakers, and
sociologists of science would certainly be able to follow most of
the demonstrations on climate change, but they would probably focus
as well on how these concepts and ideas are discussed and
legitimised in this book."
—Yves Laberge, Journal of Applied Statistics, 40, 2013"Amongst the
heated politics of climate science, Petersen’s book does a rare
thing. As a philosopher he takes a step back and asks, ‘What sort
of knowledge is generated by climate models: is it reliable, is it
authoritative, how is it used, is it useful?’ This new edition,
fully updated six years after the first, should be read by all
those producing or using, criticising or praising, believing or
disbelieving, knowledge claims based on climate models. At the
least, you will better be able to defend your position; and you may
even find yourself changing it."
—Mike Hulme, professor of climate change, University of East
Anglia, UK"In this thought-provoking philosophical analysis, Arthur
Petersen explores the nature of climate simulation and attendant
uncertainties. Building on this evaluation, Petersen considers the
complex processes within the scientific community, and between
scientists and society, that ultimately determine whether an
assessment becomes a robust, shared basis for decision, or
contested and a source of dispute. He points out that it is not
enough to analyze uncertainty as a purely technical problem. Deeper
uncertainties such as those that stem from the way the problem is
framed, models are structured, or expert judgments are made, must
also be considered. His analysis has implications not only for the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and other assessment
bodies, but for all who debate the reliability and utility of model
simulations as a basis for managing environmental risks in the
anthropocene era."
—Richard Moss, senior staff scientist, PNNL Joint Global Change
Research Institute, University of Maryland, College Park, USA
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