Acknowledgments ix Introduction xi Chapter 1 A World in Crisis 1 A Subprime Outlook for the Global Economy Save the Day Coping with a Different Recession Davos Diary: 2008 Double Bubble Trouble Even When the Worst Is Over-Watch Out for Aftershocks Pitfalls in a Postbubble World Panic of 2008: Enough Scapegoating Global Fix for a Global Crisis Changing the Fed's Policy Mandate An Early Leadership Opportunity for Barack Obama Dying of Consumption Uncomfortable Truths about Our World after the Bubble A Postbubble Global Business Cycle America's Japan Syndrome Whither Capitalism? After the Era of Excess Same Old, Same Old Depression Foil Chapter 2 The Globalization Debate 89 Open Macro The Battleground of Globalization The Global Delta Beggars Can't Be Choosers Perils of a Different Globalization Bad Advice and a New Global Architecture Doha Doesn't Matter Global Speed Trap Hitting a BRIC Wall? Global Comeback-First Japan, Now Germany Labor versus Capital Global Lessons From Globalization to Localization Unprepared for Globalization The Currency Foil The Shifting Mix of Global Saving Chapter 3 Chinese Rebalancing 169 China's Rebalancing Challenge A Commodity-Lite China Scale and the Chinese Policy Challenge China's Great Contradiction Soft Landing Made in China? The Great Chinese Profi ts Debate China Goes for Quality Heavy Lifting Two Birds with One Stone Unstable, Unbalanced, Uncoordinated, and Unsustainable China's Global Challenge Consumer-Led Growth for China China's Macro Imperatives Manchurian Paradox Chapter 4 Pan-Asian Challenges 261 The Next Asia Rebalancing Made in Japan? From Beijing to Dubai A Tale of Two Asias Kim's Boost to Globalization Japan's Missing Link India on the Move The Cranes of Dubai Asian Decoupling Unlikely The Korea Test Asia's Policy Trap Complacency Asian Style The End of the Beginning Another Asian Wake-Up Call India's Virtuous Cycle Risks of an Asian Relapse Chapter 5 U.S.-China Tensions 327 A Slippery Slope Past the Point of No Return Debating U.S.-China Trade Policy Who's Subsidizing Whom? Protectionist Threats-Then and Now The Ghost of Reed Smoot China's Pace, America's Angst The Politics of Trade Frictions A Wake-Up Call for the United States and China: Stress Testing a Symbiotic Relationship Afterword 395 Sources 403 About the Author 407 Index 409
Stephen S. Roach has been a thought leader on Wall Street for over thirty years. He is currently a member of the faculty of Yale University and Non-Executive Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia. For the bulk of his career, he served as Morgan Stanley's chief economist, heading up a highly regarded team of economists around the world. His recent research on globalization, the emergence of China and India, trade policy, and the capital market implications of global imbalances has appeared widely in the international media and in testimony before the U.S. Congress. Prior to joining Morgan Stanley in 1982, he worked in senior capacities at Morgan Guaranty Trust Company and the Federal Reserve Board in Washington D.C. He holds a PhD in economics from New York University and was a research fellow at the Brookings Institution. He is currently recovering from chronic jet lag syndrome after having logged 1.2 million air miles during his recent three-year stint as Hong Kong-based Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia.