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Strategic Analysis in Support of International Policy Making


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Table of Contents

Introduction (Thomas Juneau) 1. Making Strategic Analysis Matter (Jeremy Ghez and Gregory F. Treverton) 2. When the Dominant Discourse Encounters Small State Realities: Strategic Analysis in New Zealand and the Theory-Policy Gap (Robert Ayson) 3. How Intelligence Analysis Education Tries to Improve Strategic Analysis (Tim Walton) 4. Here (Very Likely) Be Dragons: The Challenges of Strategic Forecasting (Rex Brynen) 5. The US National Intelligence Council's Global Trends: Both More and Less than Meets the Eye (Mat Burrows) 6. The Bureau of Intelligence and Research in the State Department (Tom King) 7. The Role of Strategic Analysis in Operations: A Case Study from Afghanistan (Paul Dickson) 8. How to Create an "Institutional Think Tank" Within A Ministry of Defence (and Make It Last): France's Institut d'Etudes Strategiques de l'Ecole Militaire (IRSEM) (Frederic Charillon) 9. The Practice of Open Intelligence: The Experience of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (Jean-Louis Tiernan) 10. NATO Defense College: Navigating between Critical Analysis, Strategic Education and Partnerships (Trine Villumsen Berling and Brooke A. Smith-Windsor) 11. Stratfor: Merging Intelligence and Geopolitics (Kamran Bokhari) 12. Strategic Thinking or Thinking Strategically? The Ambiguous Role of American Think Tanks (Donald Abelson) 13. Balancing Responsiveness, Relevance and Expertise: Lessons from the History of Strategic Analysis in the Canadian Department of National Defence (Michael Roi and Paul Dickson) Conclusion (Thomas Juneau) About the contributors Index

About the Author

Editor Thomas Juneau is an assistant professor at the University of Ottawa's Graduate School of Public and International Affairs. From 2003 to 2014, he worked with Canada's Department of National Defence. CONTRIBUTORS Donald E. Abelson, University of Western Ontario, Canada. Robert Ayson, Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand. Kamran Bokhari, George Washington University's Center for Cyber and Homeland Security. Formetly Stratfor's lead analyst on Middle Eastern and South Asian Affairs. Rex Brynen, McGill University, Canada. Mathew Burrows, director of the Atlantic Council's Strategic Foresight Initiative. Former Counselor at the National Intelligence Council (NIC). Frederic Charillon, professor, Universite d'Auvergne, Sciences Po Paris, and the National School of Administration (ENA), France. Paul Dickson, Strategic Analyst with the Department of National Defence, Canada. Jeremy Ghez, Professor of Economics and International Affairs at HEC, Paris. Thomas King, former head of the Persian Gulf Division in the Near East and South Asia Analysis Office of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research (INR) at the US Department of State. Michael Roi, Strategic Analyst with the Canadian Department of National Defence. Brooke Smith-Windsor, Deputy Head and a founding member of the NATO Defence College (NDC) Research Division. Jean-Louis Tiernan, Canadian Security Intelligence Service. Gregory Treverton, Chairman of the US National Intelligence Council. Trine Villumsen Berling, Centre for Advanced Security Theory (CAST), University of Copenhagen, Denmark. Tim Walton, James Madison University, USA. He served in the US Navy, and the Central Intelligence Agency.


This is a refreshing look at a critical issue. Instead of another book about the intelligence process, it focuses squarely on the relationship between intelligence and policy. And instead of another book on intelligence failure, the contributors explore what makes strategic analysis work. Scholars and practitioners will learn much from their answers. -- Joshua Rovner, Director, Security and Strategy Program, Southern Methodist University
This is a wonderful collection of contributions from knowledgeable and experienced professionals that advances our understandings of strategic analysis and provides best practices for improving its positive influence on international policy outcomes. Currently, more has been written about the failure of strategic analysis to influence policy outcomes, while less is known about the way in which strategic analysis can and does influence policy for the better. This book makes a significant contribution to knowledge by explaining how strategic analysis can have a positive influence on policy in a wide variety of national and organizational contexts, including but not limited to intelligence organizations. It will be of great value to all those who want to understand how strategic analysis can most effectively improve understanding and outcomes. -- Stephen Marrin, associate professor, Intelligence Analysis Program, James Madison University

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